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Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« on: February 10, 2019, 12:20:57 PM »
Presidential Election battleground states nationwide

On February 16, Nigerians will troop out to elect a new President that will pilot the affairs of the nation for another four years.

Of the 72 presidential candidates on the final list recently released by the Independent National Electoral Commission that are eligible to contest the presidential election, two contenders are generally believed to be the front runners.  They are President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party.


The contest is arguably between the two leading parties, the APC and the PDP. It is therefore no surprise that a number of registered parties have adopted either Buhari or Atiku as their presidential candidate for the February 16 poll.

Investigations carried out across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, on Saturday showed Buhari in control of about 11 states, while about 10 other states are said to be the strongholds of Atiku.

The battleground, from all indications, would be in 15 states including the FCT, where the two contestants are expected to slug it out. The survey shows that whoever wins in each of these states will, most likely, coast home to victory.

The battleground states are
 Kaduna,
Niger,
Kwara.
Plateau,
 Kogi,
Benue,
Adamawa,
Ondo,
Oyo,
Osun,
Edo,
Akwa Ibom,
Anambra,
Gombe and
 the FCT.




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NaijaSky

Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« on: February 10, 2019, 12:20:57 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2019, 12:52:11 PM »
Oyo

As things stand today in Oyo State, apart from the APC and PDP, three other political parties making headway are the Zenith Labour Party, African Democratic Congress and Action Democratic Party. The body language of leaders of the three parties suggests their supporters will vote for Atiku, leaving the bulk of Buhari’s votes to come from the ruling APC.

Though it is too early to emphatically predict who wins here, analysts say the candidate of the PDP is a man to beat because of Buhari’s waning influence among the citizens.

A renowned political scientist at the University of Ibadan, Prof. Osisioma Nwolise, said, “My opinion on where the pendulum swings or the direction of people’s votes does not matter. What we must know is that both Buhari and Atiku are Nigerians from the northern extraction.”

The Coordinator, Atiku Presidential Campaign Council, Dr. Nureni Adeniran said, “Atiku will surely defeat Buhari during the forthcoming presidential election in Oyo State because the situation is more deplorable in the state where the APC has been in charge for about eight years and has symbolically told the good people of Oyo that their suffering will continue under an APC government.”

But the APC spokesman, Dr AbdulAzeez Olatunde, said Buhari was destined to coast home to victory because “Oyo State is lucky to have above 20,000 N-Power beneficiaries out of a total 500,000 N-Power beneficiaries in Nigeria who were selected without any sentiment nor any political affiliation. Our pupils are part of the one million school pupils in Nigeria that are fed daily in public schools without forgetting their chefs who are also about 3,000.”



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2019, 12:52:11 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2019, 12:54:06 PM »
Ondo

The PDP is said to be taking advantage of the leadership crisis rocking the APC in the state.

The crisis, which started after Governor Rotimi Akeredolu emerged as the candidate of the APC in the governorship primary that took place on September 3, 2016, has led to the emergence of factions in the party and may affect the result of the presidential election in the state.

Although all the factions claim to be working for the return of Buhari, it was gathered that the candidates for the state and national assembly elections were personally working for themselves without the support of the governor or the party.

The governor was, however, alleged to be funding the candidates of the Action Alliance in the Ondo South and North Senatorial Districts, Dr Tunji Abayomi and Dr Olatunji Felder, respectively.

It was learnt that a number of people from the state were not happy with the Federal Government-controlled APC on the ground that the state had not felt the presence of the Federal Government in the last three and a half years. So, many who supported Buhari in 2015 had reportedly made a U-turn, calling for the change of the government.

A political analyst, Mr Waheed Olawande, said, “There is a saying that a house that is divided against itself would collapse. There is a need for the APC to go to the poll in unity if they (members) really like Buhari to win the election. The crisis can’t take them anywhere.”

The state Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Mr. Banji Okunomo, said the whole state was for the candidate of the PDP, Atiku.

However, the state Chairman of the APC in the state, Mr Ade Adetimehin, said the party would win the election.  “You can see the number of the people that trooped out to welcome Mr President when he came for the rally. This is to tell you how acceptable the President is to our people. We are winning the election,” he added.



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2019, 12:54:06 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2019, 12:56:24 PM »
Kaduna

Kaduna was a PDP state from 1999 to 2015 when Buhari and Nasir el-Rufai, respectively, won the presidential and governorship elections in the state.

One thing that will likely work in favour of the President over his main challenger is the fact that Kaduna has remained home to Buhari since he was ousted as the Head of State in August, 1985. Residents, especially the Muslim folks, who form the majority of the voters in the state, have held him in high esteem since then.

The bulk of Buhari’s votes will come from areas such as Rigasa, Tudun-wada, Kawo, Zaria and other parts of the northern zone of the state. The folks in this area are said to literally worship and see him as ‘Mai gaskiya’ (a transparent fellow).

But the PDP standard bearer (Atiku) is said to be popular in the southern part of the state, which is predominantly inhabited by Christians. This area is considered the stronghold of the PDP. He is expected to get bloc votes there and share the votes from the central zone with the President.

The President will reportedly pay for his inability to manage the crisis that forced some notable grass root politicians (members) out of the APC. Among those that exited the party is Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi. These defectors will expectedly team up with some political heavyweights such as the former Chairman of the National Caretaker Committee of the PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi; former Vice-President Namadi Sambo; and a former governor of the state, Ramallan Yero. These politicians will prove that they are in charge of the state.

Also, members of the Shi’ite movement, whose leader, Sheikh Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, and wife, Zeenat, have been in incarceration since 2015, following their clash with the military, would want to prove a point. Though, they have never voted since 1999, it was gathered they had obtained their PVCs to vote out Buhari and Governor Nasir El-Rufai this time round.


NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2019, 12:56:24 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2019, 12:58:04 PM »
Gombe

Gombe State will be a straight fight between Buhari and Atiku. Members of the ruling PDP in the state are upbeat about the prospects of retaining power as they argue that the outgoing Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo has given a good account of himself.

However, the state APC chairman, Nitte Amangal, told SUNDAY PUNCH, “This election will be a walkover for President Buhari and the APC in Gombe. The signs are there for everyone to see. First, five aspirants, who contested the governorship in the PDP, are today with us. A serving senator just joined us. And to crown it all, the outgoing governor has failed woefully in terms of performance; people are eager for a change. Look at the crowd which came out to welcome Buhari. Gombe is for APC from top to bottom.”

The state Chairman of the PDP, Joel Jagafa, however, dismissed the claims by the APC leader. He said those who left the PDP to join the APC were either people who had lost political value or those who had skeletons in their cupboards and were afraid of being probed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

He said, “As a party, the PDP has provided leadership for Gombe for about 16 years now; we are here and going stronger every day. Come to Gombe, see the wonders the PDP has performed. Our members who defected, which the APC is celebrating today, are people who lost in our primaries.”

A Gombe-based independent analyst, Mr Segun Awoleye, said, “It will not be out of place to say this will be a very close race. I dare say regional sentiments and the incumbency factor may work in favour of Atiku and the PDP.” He predicted 55/45 per cent for Atiku and Buhari, respectively.



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2019, 12:58:04 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2019, 01:11:05 PM »
FCT

As political alliances shift among politicians in the FCT, there are chances that the over one million votes in the seat of power may be shared by Buhari and Atiku.

The sole senator representing the FCT in the Senate, Philip Aduda, is seeking to retain his seat in the Senate and is rallying support for his party and its candidate, Atiku.

On the other hand, the Minister of the FCT, Mohammed Bello, is rallying support for the APC and its candidate.

Analysts see the presidential election results standing at 50/50.



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2019, 01:11:05 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2019, 01:15:53 PM »
Kwara

Buhari may score more votes than Atiku in Kwara in the presidential poll going by the current rigorous campaign in the state on the need to change the managers of the state’s affairs. But the PDP leaders are not leaving anything to chance with their campaign that power must change hands at the centre in order to have a buoyant economy.

The APC’s change mantra, which has been coined into a campaign slogan ‘O to gee’ (Enough is enough) seems to have resonated well with many people in the state.

Today, the voting ratio of the people is predicted as 55 per cent to 45 per cent in favour of the APC candidate.

Each of the two parties is expected to win one senatorial seat. The North senatorial seat will be decided by the traditional rulers who are still very influential in their respective domains.

The state APC Publicity Secretary, Folaranmi Aro, said the voters were excited about the change slogan of the party.

“Wherever we went, people received us with enthusiasm and our slogan, ‘O to gee’, has sunk into the minds of the people. They are happy about the social programmes being executed by President Buhari and Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo. We are sure that they will vote for the APC,” Aro said.

But the state Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Tunde Ashaolu, said the people were hungry and therefore had fallen for the party’s campaign issue of reviving the economy of the country as promised by the presidential candidate of the party, Atiku.

Ashaolu stated, “The people are going to vote for the PDP presidential candidate because our candidate is a soft sell to the people of Kwara State. They know him that he will deliver on his promises. Nigerians need good governance and our candidate will do it.”

A public affairs analyst, Taiwo Otitolaye, said all eyes would be on the two leading contenders, adding that the electorate would decide the winner of the election through their votes.



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2019, 01:15:53 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2019, 01:16:59 PM »
Kogi

One week to the presidential election, the likely voting pattern in the confluence state of Kogi is gradually unfolding. Out of the 91 political parties registered by INEC to participate in the election, only the APC and the PDP are visibly on the ground for the presidential election.

Interestingly, analysts are of the view that the outcome of the election will be largely decided by the level of the acceptance of the Governor Yahaya Bello-led administration by the people. That may not look good for Buhari.



The rating of the APC in the state has reportedly dropped significantly following Bello’s unpopular policies and reported neglect of some areas. For instance, he has embarked on prolonged civil service reforms, which led to many losing their jobs while those remaining groan under a backlog of unpaid salaries running to several months.

For instance, in Lokoja, the state capital, voters are sharply divided along the traditional residents and the settlers.

Senatorial analysis puts Kogi East as having 52 per cent of the total voting capacity with nine local government areas. The people from this area are said to be unhappy with their neglect even though the incumbent governor rode to power on the death of their illustrious son, Abubakar Audu, just when he was to be declared the governor-elect.

In the West, history shows that the people have always leaned towards the PDP. The PDP structure, which temporarily collapsed into the APC in the 2015 election to support James Faleke, the then running mate to the late Audu, has since returned to base after the return of Faleke to Lagos.

Analysts believe that in the presidential poll, the PDP might narrowly carry the day.



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2019, 01:16:59 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2019, 01:21:10 PM »
Anambra

In Anambra State, while the masses seem to be rooting for Atiku, the All Progressives Grand Alliance has shown tacit commitment to the Buhari’s re-election bid.

The state governor, Willie Obiano, recently hailed Buhari for the infrastructure he brought to Anambra State since 2015, including the completion of the mausoleum of the first President of Nigeria, the late Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe; work on the second Niger Bridge and road rehabilitation in the state as well as the South-East generally.

Obiano is also reported to have described the endorsement of Atiku and his running mate, Peter Obi, by the Chief Nnia Nwodo-led Ohanaeze Ndigbo as “idiotic”.

To still show his support for Buhari, the governor, in a meeting with the Lagos branch of the Ohanaeze Ndigbo said Buhari had a “strong feeling” to give the South- East an additional state. Many are of the view that the governor’s support would be to the advantage of Buhari in the presidential election.

However, a church leader, Sunday Ezenwa, said, “The governor is just an individual. He has only one vote and he can’t tell us where to vote.”

But the Anambra Central Zonal Publicity Secretary of the APC, Arinze Igboeli, told SUNDAY PUNCH that Buhari would garner over 45 per cent of the votes in the February 16 presidential election in Anambra State.

Igboeli, who hinged his assertion on the 2017 governorship election in the state where the APC came second in the poll said, “Many political bigwigs, such as the Minister of Labour and Employment, Dr Chris Ngige; Senator Andy Uba, Dr Tony Nwoye and Sylvester Okonkwo are working tirelessly to deliver the state to the APC in the election.”

The spokesperson for the PDP in the state, Okoli Akirika, however, said Atiku would sweep the presidential poll in the state. “All political indices irresistibly point to a resounding victory for Atiku Abubakar. The vice-presidential candidate of the party is from Anambra State and he has not only political goodwill but also electoral value,” he said.




NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2019, 01:21:10 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2019, 01:23:55 PM »
Plateau

Political observers in Plateau State are predicting that the outcome of the 2019 election may not be different from the results of the 2015 presidential poll in which the PDP candidate won with over 120,000 votes margin in the state.

The National President of Omo Oodua community, an umbrella body of the Yoruba living in the 19 northern states and Abuja, Chief Toye Ogunsuyi,  said in Jos on Friday, “I have studied both candidates from a non-partisan perspective and come to the conclusion that it is true that both the PDP and the APC presidential candidates have their followers in Plateau but I can tell you that Atiku has a greater appeal to the people than Buhari.”

Ogunsuyi’s position tallies with the position of the Chairman, Media and Publicity Committee of the PDP Campaign Council, Mr Yiljap Abraham, said that Plateau belonged to the PDP.

The state APC thinks otherwise. The Plateau State Secretary of the party, Mr Bashir Sati, said Buhari would defy every prediction to emerge victorious given his acceptability in the state.



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2019, 01:23:55 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2019, 01:26:22 PM »
Benue

Benue State, since the present political dispensation, has been one of the strongholds of the PDP. The state has since 1999 been controlled by the PDP until 2015 when the wind of change blew off the PDP umbrella and enthroned the APC.

But the PDP is gradually picking up the pieces of the umbrella and restoring its lost glory. The event that brought the party back to power in Benue was the defection of the Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom.

Ortom elected on the platform of the APC had lashed on the herdsmen’s several attacks on the state to return to his former party, the PDP, to join forces with the former President of the Senate, David Mark; an erstwhile Minister of Interior, Abba Moro; and a former governor of the state, Gabriel Suswam.

The forces will be contending with Senator George Akume, the only big name in the APC, to turn the table against Buhari whose popularity has dwindled with his government’s seeming nonchalant attitude towards the herdsmen’s attacks on the people of the state.

But both the  former Commissioner of Police in Lagos State, Alhaji Abubakar Tsav, and the state APC Publicity Secretary, James Ornguga, said the PDP should not celebrate yet, insisting that the APC could spring surprises that would jolt the PDP.

Tsav said, “You know that Ortom has employed all the powers at his disposal to demonise the APC in Benue. With the way the party was battered, no one expected to see people attending Buhari’s campaign rally. But with the crowd that attended the rally at the Aper Aku Stadium, it has shown that Buhari could win in Benue.”

Ornguga said unknown to the ruling PDP in the state, the APC had gone to all the nooks and crannies of the state to explain to the people that the Ortom-led PDP only changed the narrative of the killings in the state.

“Buhari has a brighter chance to  win the presidential election; you can see the crowd at the presidential campaign rally yesterday, (Wednesday), despite all the terrible things the PDP government has done to vilify the party,” he said.

The Publicity Secretary of the PDP in the state, Bemgba Iortyom, said, “Can you wait until the campaign tomorrow and there, you will judge. Right now, I don’t want to comment.”



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2019, 01:26:22 PM »

Offline Isaac Adeniran

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Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2019, 01:30:21 PM »
Edo

Edo State was one of the  PDP’s  strongholds until  the coming of Adams Oshiomhole.  The former Nigeria Labour Congress leader, who contested the governorship poll on the platform of the Action Congress  in 2007, only realised ambition to rule the state a year later after the   Election  Petitions Tribunal   nullified the PDP’s  Oserheimen Osunbor’s election.

Thereafter,  the AC, which  metamorphosed into Action Congress of Nigeria and later the  All Progressives Congress, took full control of the state for  nearly seven years. But the opposition  PDP, which currently has   five seats in the state House of Assembly, changed the story during the 2015 elections when it   won  the presidential election, two of the three senatorial seats and five of the nine House of Representatives seats.

Ever since the state can no longer be regarded as a full APC state. In fact, there have always been claims and counterclaims about who truly owns the state between the two leading parties.

In recent times,  the PDP has claimed APC members have defected to the party during their campaigns.

And the   APC has also claimed to have received thousands of PDP defectors.

Speaking on this issue, spokesman for the PDP in the state, Chris Nehikhare,  said  they would  not only win  Saturday’s  presidential poll but  also improve on their  2015 showing.

“We will win more this time round. We lost one senatorial seat (in 2015) but this time round  we are going to win all the seats.

“We won five of the nine House of Representatives seats then, but this time we believe we will win more than five seats.”

The chairman of the APC in the state, Anslem Ojezua,  said  his party was ready to  win the  presidential poll.

He said, “We are much stronger now and our opponents are weaker.”

A political analyst, Anthony Ogbeide, is of the opinion that  both parties  have an equal chance to win the presidential poll in the state.

He said, “Many seem to be tired of the ruling APC. They (voters)  would want a  change and they have their reasons. The unabated killings by suspected herdsmen, the lopsided appointments by President Muhammadu Buhari,  the high cost of living, unemployment and so on, are   some of the reasons. “However, you cannot totally give it to the PDP. As a person, the credibility of President Buhari is still much more intact. No one has faulted his integrity. That could work in his favour.

“Secondly, some are of the opinion that giving ticket to Atiku Abubakar was PDP’s greatest undoing. Perhaps it would have been better if  the party had  picked another candidate.”



NaijaSky

Re: Presidential Election battleground states nationwide
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2019, 01:30:21 PM »


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